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From: Jim Williams, Public Policy Polling
To: Interested Parties
Subject: KS-02 Shows Opportunity for Close Race Once Voters Learn More About
the Candidates
Date: March 19, 2026

A new PPP poll in Kansas’ 2nd Congressional district finds Don Coover within the margin of error against Republican incumbent Derek Schmidt once voters hear more about the backgrounds of each candidate. The horserace starts out with Coover at 39% and Schmidt at 49%. But 57% of voters find Dr. Don Coover’s biography as a convincing reason to vote for him compared to 50% for Congressman Schmidt, and the informed ballot has Coover in just a 4-point deficit at 45%-41%, in a district Schmidt won by 19 points in 2024.

In a district that favored President Trump voters by 20 points in the 2024 election and in this poll is +24 in Republican Party identification, President Trump has a -2 negative approval rating in the district, with 46% approving and 48% disapproving, while
Democratic Governor Kelly is at +6, with 42% approving and 36% disapproving.

It’s notable how much the President’s ratings have fallen in the district – only 75% of Trump’s voters from last time still approving of him here is about the worst we’ve seen anywhere in the country. All those disenchanted Republicans leave a path to making this
race competitive.

PPP interviewed 530 registered voters in Kansas’ 2nd Congressional district on March 11- 12, 2026. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 4.3%. 64% of interviews were conducted by text and 36% by landline.

From: LRP
To: Interested Parties
Subject:Recent Polling in the KS-02 General Election 1
Date: August 17, 2026

Our recent survey in Kansas’ 2nd Congressional District shows another close race where a Democrat can win a red district. The bottom line is that the Republican brand is deeply damaged. Army veteran and rancher Don Coover trails incumbent Derek Schmidt by single digits and keeps the incumbent under majority support. He is in a great position to take advantage of this moment. There are many races that are polling closer than expected, and this may be one of them – but there are very few that exist in a district this affordable as Democrats think about an expanded map.

Below are the key findings from the survey: 

  1. The Republican brand is greatly damaged, hinting at more than just a small desire for change in leadership at the federal level. Every Republican tested in the survey is upside down in favorable ratings, including Trump (-6 unfavorable), former Governor Sam Brownback (-44 unfavorable), and Senator Roger Marshall (-17 unfavorable). More to the point, Congressman Schmidt’s favorable ratings are nearly as bad (-4 unfavorable), and Congressional Republicans are among the worst we have seen this year (-19 unfavorable).
  2. Two important factors to keep in mind. First, this race is not happening in a vacuum. There is a major Senate race generating national attention. In this data set, Marshall is upside down, as mentioned, and two statewide surveys show that race within the margin of error 2. Second, this is not a benign sample for Don Coover. Republicans have a registration advantage of 22 points (49% Republican to 27% Democrat), an identification advantage of eight points (46% to 37%), the sample reflects a Trump-2024 advantage of 15 points, and voters are not thrilled with Democrats in Congress (-16 unfavorable). The point is, this is a rough sample for Coover – but even rougher for vulnerable Republicans trying to defend themselves. 
  3. Putting pressure on Schmidt can keep this race close and prevent Schmidt from gaining partisan momentum. When the survey simulates positive head-to-head spending, Coover surges to his own MOE lead (47% to 45%). And, after voters hear negative information against Schmidt, that advantage grows (49% to 43%). 
  4. Finally, from McKenna Media: Kansas’ 2nd is one of the more affordable competitive districts to communicate in. The district splits across three media markets—Topeka (41% of the electorate), Kansas City (31%), and Joplin (19%)—and all three are relatively cheap to buy. Cost per point is $100 in Topeka, $156 in Kansas City, and just $35 in Joplin. That means a full week of broadcast television across the markets runs roughly $80,000, and a single ad on broadcast in all three markets reaching saturation costs a little under $250,000. The research in this memo makes clear that this is a district where the right message moves voters, and because the airwaves are this affordable, a relatively modest investment can move the voters that Don Coover will need. Additionally, with no spending or reservations in KS-02 to date, early spending can make a significant impact.

  1. Method: TeamU at LRP designed and administered this survey. It was conducted by telephone using professional interviewers as well as text-to-online from August 6 – 10, 2026. The survey reached a total of 400 likely 2026 general election voters in KS-02. The data were weighted slightly. Sampling error for the total sample is +/- 4.9% and greater for subgroups. ↩︎
  2. https://static01.nyt.com/newsgraphics/documenttools/b727068b48546990/3bda8f92-full.pdf; https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook-pm/2026/08/07/the-gops-new-economic-anchor-01029005 ↩︎
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